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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 14 | 6-4-4 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 57.0% | +2.9 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.8% | +10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 6.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.9% | +10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Water Barrier, Tidal Lock. Losers more often ran: Awakened Deacon, Blinding Orb, Tariff Ring.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |